Yes, it does seem like a dream, world peace. But maybe it is happening, even not withstanding our best efforts against it.
It is odd how those who dismiss the peace movement as Utopian don’t hesitate to proffer the most absurdly dreamy reasons for going to war: To stamp out terrorism, install democracy, eliminate fascism, and most delusionally to ‘rid the world of evil-doers’.
In a study published on conflict simulations by Professor Harvard Hegre (University of Oslo and the Peace Research Institute of Oslo), statistically this is what is happening already. He predicts that there will be a substantial decrease in the number of conflicts over the next 40 years. Professor Hegre says that conflicts have already fallen since 1995, when one in four countries were in conflict, and in 2009, where it is one of six countries are in conflict. If you go further back in history, war for the expansion of a country was considered normal.’War has become less acceptable, just like duelling, torture and the death penalty.’
The reasons for the falling rate of conflict are given as:
Higher education. This seems to be the most crucial factor, but the author’s are not sure why this is true. They theorise that more educated people have less children, so there are less mouths to feed.
Too expensive for war. The cost of mounting a war, and the breakdown of the economic web that happens during war is another reason cited for decreasing war.
Lower infant mortality rate. In the model, countries with higher infant mortality rates were more likely to be in conflict than countries with lower infant mortality. Overall, infant mortality rates are decreasing worldwide.
Slower growth. Lower population rates, with fewer younger population.
From the conflict simulation model, the authors also predict that the countries likely to be in conflict in five years are India, Ethiopia, Philippines, Uganda and Burma. The countries that will have conflict decrease the most within five years are Algeria, Columbia, Turkey and Thailand.
The countries with current conflicts that will finish in 5 years are Libya, Tajikistan, Syria, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Iraq.
I don’t feel that peace is unobtainable. It is a slow process, because the pattern of war has made many people wealthy, and they do not want to change or let go of their pattern. I also feel that the internet and specifically social networking are helping to spread the message of peace, and pointing out the destructive consequences of war. Change happens slowly when patterns are embedded in our genes, our psyche and in our every day experience. But it does happen – it just takes longer for it to be noticed. It is time collectively, as humans, to release the need and desire for war, and begin to establish education, tolerance, love and equal rights for all the beings who inhabit our beautiful Mother Earth.
Finally, going back to Arundhati Roy’s quote on how people dismiss peace as a Utopian dream, it is also time to realise that the reasons we put forth for war are unrealistic. War does not do what we think it does – it does not stamp out terrorism, it does not spread democracy. How can it? Destruction is destruction, and that is what you will get back karmically. Time for a dream change, and we can start sending out the karmic seeds of peace.